Analysis: Potential Guest Revenue Loss – Airbnb Bookings

Objective

To assess the potential impact on Guest Revenue and Guest Revenue Retained if we lose all income generated by Waiver and Deposit from all bookings with source Airbnb.

Context

Big portion of our bookings come from Airbnb.
A potential upcoming change could lead to a drop in revenue from this channel.
This analysis quantifies the potential loss.

Methodology

Timeframe analysed: Mar 2024 – Feb 2025
Data source: DWH
Key metrics analysed:
- Total Revenue
- Revenue Retained
- Guest Revenue
- Number of Bookings
Segmentation by source: Airbnb over Total.

Key Findings

Airbnb’s Guest Revenue (Waiver and Deposit) accounted for 23.0**%** of the Total Revenue in the selected period.
Estimated monthly revenue at risk: £98,456.
Airbnb’s Guest Revenue Retained (Waiver and Deposit) accounted for 14.4**%** of the Total Revenue Retained in the selected period.
Estimated monthly revenue retained at risk: £38,243.
Supporting metrics:
- Airbnb’s Guest Revenue Retained represents 32.2% of Truvi’s Total Guest Revenue Retained.
- The monthly amount of Host Revenue generated by Airbnb bookings amounts to £60,213

Data and analysis

All data used was extracted from the DWH.

Query 1: All bookings from PMS source in the last year (March 2024 to February 2025) with their guest product and payments

SELECT DISTINCT
b.id_booking,
b.created_date_utc,
vp.verification_payment_type,
vp.amount_without_taxes_in_gbp,
CASE
WHEN vp.verification_payment_type = 'Waiver' THEN vp.superhog_fee_without_taxes_in_gbp
ELSE vp.amount_without_taxes_in_gbp
END AS superhog_fee_without_taxes_in_gbp,
it.display_name AS PMS,
b.id_user_host,
uh.id_deal,
uh.email,
uh.company_name,
b.id_booking_source,
CASE
WHEN b.id_booking_source = 1 THEN 'Unknown'
WHEN b.id_booking_source = 2 THEN 'Manual'
WHEN b.id_booking_source = 3 THEN 'Airbnb'
WHEN b.id_booking_source = 4 THEN 'Vrbo'
WHEN b.id_booking_source = 5 THEN 'BookingDotCom'
WHEN b.id_booking_source = 6 THEN 'Agoda'
WHEN b.id_booking_source = 7 THEN 'Marriott'
WHEN b.id_booking_source = 8 THEN 'OneStepLink'
ELSE 'Other'
END AS booking_source
FROM int_core__bookings b
INNER JOIN int_core__user_host uh
ON uh.id_user_host = b.id_user_host
INNER JOIN staging.stg_core__integration i
ON b.id_user_host = i.id_superhog_user
AND b.created_at_utc BETWEEN i.created_at_utc AND COALESCE(i.deleted_at_utc, '2050-12-31')
INNER JOIN staging.stg_core__integration_type it
ON it.id_integration_type = i.id_integration_type
LEFT JOIN int_core__verification_payments_v2 vp ON vp.id_verification_request = b.id_verification_request AND vp.payment_status = 'Paid'
WHERE b.verification_request_booking_source = 'PMS'
AND b.created_date_utc between '2024-03-01' and '2025-02-28'
AND b.is_duplicate_booking IS FALSE;

Query 2: Revenue numbers by deal in the last year (March 2024 to February 2025)

SELECT mam.id_deal,
mam.main_deal_name,
sum(COALESCE(created_bookings, 0)) AS total_bookings,
sum(COALESCE(total_revenue_in_gbp, 0)) AS total_revenue,
sum(COALESCE(total_guest_revenue_in_gbp, 0)) AS total_guest_revenue,
sum(COALESCE(xero_operator_net_fees_in_gbp, 0)) AS invoiced_operator_revenue,
sum(COALESCE(xero_apis_net_fees_in_gbp, 0)) AS invoiced_api_revenue,
sum(COALESCE(revenue_retained_in_gbp , 0)) AS revenue_retained,
sum(COALESCE(waiver_payments_in_gbp, 0)) AS waiver_payments,
sum(COALESCE(deposit_fees_in_gbp, 0)) AS deposit_payments
FROM reporting.monthly_aggregated_metrics_history_by_deal mam
WHERE date BETWEEN '2024-03-01' AND '2025-02-28'
GROUP BY 1, 2
ORDER BY 4 DESC

To assess the potential impact of losing all Guest Revenue from Airbnb bookings, we extracted all bookings where booking_source = 'PMS' from March 2024 to February 2025. This timeframe was chosen to ensure we had complete and finalized revenue data.

We then:

Filtered the bookings by source = Airbnb, and aggregated the number of bookings and total Guest Revenue in a pivot table, grouped by deal.
Extracted total revenue across all deals, regardless of source, for the same period.
Cross-referenced Airbnb revenue with total deal revenue to calculate the proportion of revenue coming from Airbnb.
This allowed us to estimate the potential impact of losing all Guest Revenue generated from Airbnb bookings.
We also included an estimate of the potential Host Revenue (Invoiced Operator Revenue) that could be affected by the loss of Airbnb bookings. Since we don't have direct data to calculate the exact impact, we approximated it based on the proportion of bookings coming from Airbnb relative to the total number of bookings.

Excel Notebook

Airbnb Payments.xlsx

5 KiB Raw Blame History Unescape Escape