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pablo 2022-07-20 22:55:52 +02:00
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@ -21,9 +21,9 @@ better this and future updates.
## The Operation ## The Operation
On July 2022, I took a loan with my usual bank. This is an uncollateralized On July 2022, I took a loan with my usual bank. This is an uncollateralized
loan with a fixed amortization schedule. The numbers: personal loan with a fixed amortization schedule. The main figures:
- Principal: 33.000€ - Principal: 33,000€
- 120 installments in 120 months (10 years) - 120 installments in 120 months (10 years)
- APR: 5.99%, APY: 6.16% - APR: 5.99%, APY: 6.16%
- Each installment will be of 366.20€ - Each installment will be of 366.20€
@ -35,9 +35,9 @@ As this loan has no collateral, there is no margin call or liquidation of any
sort. The loan is completely orthogonal to whatever the evolution of bitcoin's sort. The loan is completely orthogonal to whatever the evolution of bitcoin's
price is. price is.
During the following six months, my plan is to swap 5.000€/month into bitcoin. During the first six months, my plan is to swap 5.000€/month into bitcoin. I do
I do this instead of simply lump-suming everyting to softly minimize the risk this instead of simply lump-suming everyting to softly minimize the risk of
of picking a terrible entrypoint. picking a terrible entrypoint.
After these six months, I will have a bitcoin stack of a certain amount and After these six months, I will have a bitcoin stack of a certain amount and
around 1.000€. From that point on, the plan is to: around 1.000€. From that point on, the plan is to:
@ -51,19 +51,19 @@ around 1.000€. From that point on, the plan is to:
As time passes, two scenarios can take place: As time passes, two scenarios can take place:
- In the SHTF (shit hits the fan) scenario, I run out of bitcoin before the 10 - In the SHTF (shit hits the fan) scenario, I run out of bitcoin before the 10
years have passed and I am left with 0 stash and some amount outstanding with years have passed and I am left with a 0 btc stash and some outstanding debt
the bank. I will be forced to keep paying the installments from my personal with the bank. I will be forced to keep paying the installments from my
pocket and Operation Saylor will have turned into a net negative for me. This personal pocket and Operation Saylor will have turned into a net negative for
could happen both in case a black swan completely destroy bitcoin and its me. This could happen both in case a black swan completely destroys bitcoin
value, or simply because bitcoin's € price doesn't go up fast enough to make and its value, or simply because bitcoin's market value doesn't go up fast
a net return. enough to make a net return.
- In the Moon scenario, I manage to pay all the installments by taking small - In the Moon scenario, I manage to pay all the installments by taking small
bites of my bitcoin stack and I still have some amount of btc left in the bites of my bitcoin stack and I still have some amount of btc left in the
end. I will have succesfully earned value with my bet, and I am left with a end. I will have succesfully earned value with my bet, and I am left with a
nice stack of some unknown value. This would happen in a scenario where nice stack of some unknown value. This would happen in a scenario where
bitcoin behaves the way it tipically has for the past 10 years (or with a bitcoin behaves the way it tipically has for the past 10 years (or with a
slightly watered-down behaviour in terms of return and volatility) and I get slightly watered-down behaviour in terms of both return and volatility) and I
lucky with the early volatility. get lucky with the volatility in the earliy months and years.
My hope is that Moon scenario will happen, but I am very well aware that SHTF My hope is that Moon scenario will happen, but I am very well aware that SHTF
scenario is a serious possibility. scenario is a serious possibility.
@ -91,18 +91,18 @@ There are several motivations to doing this.
bit like a peer review, with the only difference I am reviewing my own plans. bit like a peer review, with the only difference I am reviewing my own plans.
- As discussed before, I find personal, real life stories of bitcoiners and - As discussed before, I find personal, real life stories of bitcoiners and
their actions fascinating. Macro environment analysis, papers, technical and their actions fascinating. Macro environment analysis, papers, technical and
economical books, ... They are all great reads. But I think sometimes we also economics books,... They are all great reads. But I think sometimes we also
need simple stories from regular people like us, with all the crisp of the need simple stories from regular people like us, with all the crisp of the
real life and down to earth practical issues. Bitcoin is, after all, a real life and down to earth practical issues and details. Bitcoin is, after
grassroots, bottom-up phenomenon. It is the small actions of you, me and all, a grassroots, bottom-up phenomenon. It is the small actions of you, me
everyone else which compose the emergent behaviour of the network. and everyone else which compose the emergent behaviour of the network.
- I think that, on most forums and communities, there is a dogmatic rejection - I think that, on most forums and communities, there is a dogmatic rejection
to any kinf of idea related to borrowing money for investing. I am the first to any kind of idea related to borrowing money for investing. I am the first
to agree that, for most people, most of the time, it is a terrible idea that to agree that, for most people, most of the time, it is a terrible idea that
should be avoided. But it is also my belief that under the right should be avoided. But it is also my belief that under the right
circumstances, it is a valid strategy. And so I am slightly pissed off circumstances, it is a valid strategy. And so I am slightly pissed off
because this automatic, parrot-like "NeVEr BorRoW tO INvEsT" comments hijack because this automatic, parrot-like "NeVEr BorRoW tO INvEsT" comments hijack
any kind of honest debate around this. I hope that these series can be any kind of honest debate around this. I hope that these series can
counterbalance this and get people discussing in a calm and thoughtful manner counterbalance this and get people discussing in a calm and thoughtful manner
the possibility of doing something similar to what I am doing. If the angry the possibility of doing something similar to what I am doing. If the angry
mobs hijack my posts anyway, at least I hope that whoever is curious about mobs hijack my posts anyway, at least I hope that whoever is curious about
@ -130,9 +130,11 @@ decision. During the series, I will share my own train of thought and the
numbers I ran before pulling the trigger. numbers I ran before pulling the trigger.
If you reached this far, thanks for reading. I'll be happy to discuss further If you reached this far, thanks for reading. I'll be happy to discuss further
in the comment section. in the comment section. You can find below the numbers that I will be posting
regularly.
--- ---
## Stats ## Stats
- BTC stack: - BTC stack:

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