.
This commit is contained in:
parent
beea7a67ff
commit
c6b3cf616e
2 changed files with 22 additions and 20 deletions
|
|
@ -21,9 +21,9 @@ better this and future updates.
|
||||||
## The Operation
|
## The Operation
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
On July 2022, I took a loan with my usual bank. This is an uncollateralized
|
On July 2022, I took a loan with my usual bank. This is an uncollateralized
|
||||||
loan with a fixed amortization schedule. The numbers:
|
personal loan with a fixed amortization schedule. The main figures:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
- Principal: 33.000€
|
- Principal: 33,000€
|
||||||
- 120 installments in 120 months (10 years)
|
- 120 installments in 120 months (10 years)
|
||||||
- APR: 5.99%, APY: 6.16%
|
- APR: 5.99%, APY: 6.16%
|
||||||
- Each installment will be of 366.20€
|
- Each installment will be of 366.20€
|
||||||
|
|
@ -35,9 +35,9 @@ As this loan has no collateral, there is no margin call or liquidation of any
|
||||||
sort. The loan is completely orthogonal to whatever the evolution of bitcoin's
|
sort. The loan is completely orthogonal to whatever the evolution of bitcoin's
|
||||||
price is.
|
price is.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
During the following six months, my plan is to swap 5.000€/month into bitcoin.
|
During the first six months, my plan is to swap 5.000€/month into bitcoin. I do
|
||||||
I do this instead of simply lump-suming everyting to softly minimize the risk
|
this instead of simply lump-suming everyting to softly minimize the risk of
|
||||||
of picking a terrible entrypoint.
|
picking a terrible entrypoint.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
After these six months, I will have a bitcoin stack of a certain amount and
|
After these six months, I will have a bitcoin stack of a certain amount and
|
||||||
around 1.000€. From that point on, the plan is to:
|
around 1.000€. From that point on, the plan is to:
|
||||||
|
|
@ -51,19 +51,19 @@ around 1.000€. From that point on, the plan is to:
|
||||||
As time passes, two scenarios can take place:
|
As time passes, two scenarios can take place:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
- In the SHTF (shit hits the fan) scenario, I run out of bitcoin before the 10
|
- In the SHTF (shit hits the fan) scenario, I run out of bitcoin before the 10
|
||||||
years have passed and I am left with 0 stash and some amount outstanding with
|
years have passed and I am left with a 0 btc stash and some outstanding debt
|
||||||
the bank. I will be forced to keep paying the installments from my personal
|
with the bank. I will be forced to keep paying the installments from my
|
||||||
pocket and Operation Saylor will have turned into a net negative for me. This
|
personal pocket and Operation Saylor will have turned into a net negative for
|
||||||
could happen both in case a black swan completely destroy bitcoin and its
|
me. This could happen both in case a black swan completely destroys bitcoin
|
||||||
value, or simply because bitcoin's € price doesn't go up fast enough to make
|
and its value, or simply because bitcoin's market value doesn't go up fast
|
||||||
a net return.
|
enough to make a net return.
|
||||||
- In the Moon scenario, I manage to pay all the installments by taking small
|
- In the Moon scenario, I manage to pay all the installments by taking small
|
||||||
bites of my bitcoin stack and I still have some amount of btc left in the
|
bites of my bitcoin stack and I still have some amount of btc left in the
|
||||||
end. I will have succesfully earned value with my bet, and I am left with a
|
end. I will have succesfully earned value with my bet, and I am left with a
|
||||||
nice stack of some unknown value. This would happen in a scenario where
|
nice stack of some unknown value. This would happen in a scenario where
|
||||||
bitcoin behaves the way it tipically has for the past 10 years (or with a
|
bitcoin behaves the way it tipically has for the past 10 years (or with a
|
||||||
slightly watered-down behaviour in terms of return and volatility) and I get
|
slightly watered-down behaviour in terms of both return and volatility) and I
|
||||||
lucky with the early volatility.
|
get lucky with the volatility in the earliy months and years.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
My hope is that Moon scenario will happen, but I am very well aware that SHTF
|
My hope is that Moon scenario will happen, but I am very well aware that SHTF
|
||||||
scenario is a serious possibility.
|
scenario is a serious possibility.
|
||||||
|
|
@ -91,18 +91,18 @@ There are several motivations to doing this.
|
||||||
bit like a peer review, with the only difference I am reviewing my own plans.
|
bit like a peer review, with the only difference I am reviewing my own plans.
|
||||||
- As discussed before, I find personal, real life stories of bitcoiners and
|
- As discussed before, I find personal, real life stories of bitcoiners and
|
||||||
their actions fascinating. Macro environment analysis, papers, technical and
|
their actions fascinating. Macro environment analysis, papers, technical and
|
||||||
economical books, ... They are all great reads. But I think sometimes we also
|
economics books,... They are all great reads. But I think sometimes we also
|
||||||
need simple stories from regular people like us, with all the crisp of the
|
need simple stories from regular people like us, with all the crisp of the
|
||||||
real life and down to earth practical issues. Bitcoin is, after all, a
|
real life and down to earth practical issues and details. Bitcoin is, after
|
||||||
grassroots, bottom-up phenomenon. It is the small actions of you, me and
|
all, a grassroots, bottom-up phenomenon. It is the small actions of you, me
|
||||||
everyone else which compose the emergent behaviour of the network.
|
and everyone else which compose the emergent behaviour of the network.
|
||||||
- I think that, on most forums and communities, there is a dogmatic rejection
|
- I think that, on most forums and communities, there is a dogmatic rejection
|
||||||
to any kinf of idea related to borrowing money for investing. I am the first
|
to any kind of idea related to borrowing money for investing. I am the first
|
||||||
to agree that, for most people, most of the time, it is a terrible idea that
|
to agree that, for most people, most of the time, it is a terrible idea that
|
||||||
should be avoided. But it is also my belief that under the right
|
should be avoided. But it is also my belief that under the right
|
||||||
circumstances, it is a valid strategy. And so I am slightly pissed off
|
circumstances, it is a valid strategy. And so I am slightly pissed off
|
||||||
because this automatic, parrot-like "NeVEr BorRoW tO INvEsT" comments hijack
|
because this automatic, parrot-like "NeVEr BorRoW tO INvEsT" comments hijack
|
||||||
any kind of honest debate around this. I hope that these series can be
|
any kind of honest debate around this. I hope that these series can
|
||||||
counterbalance this and get people discussing in a calm and thoughtful manner
|
counterbalance this and get people discussing in a calm and thoughtful manner
|
||||||
the possibility of doing something similar to what I am doing. If the angry
|
the possibility of doing something similar to what I am doing. If the angry
|
||||||
mobs hijack my posts anyway, at least I hope that whoever is curious about
|
mobs hijack my posts anyway, at least I hope that whoever is curious about
|
||||||
|
|
@ -130,9 +130,11 @@ decision. During the series, I will share my own train of thought and the
|
||||||
numbers I ran before pulling the trigger.
|
numbers I ran before pulling the trigger.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
If you reached this far, thanks for reading. I'll be happy to discuss further
|
If you reached this far, thanks for reading. I'll be happy to discuss further
|
||||||
in the comment section.
|
in the comment section. You can find below the numbers that I will be posting
|
||||||
|
regularly.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
---
|
---
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
## Stats
|
## Stats
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
- BTC stack:
|
- BTC stack:
|
||||||
|
|
|
||||||
BIN
register.xlsx
BIN
register.xlsx
Binary file not shown.
Loading…
Add table
Add a link
Reference in a new issue