From c6b3cf616e099e9a50437d140fc194f62c04904b Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: pablo Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2022 22:55:52 +0200 Subject: [PATCH] . --- evangelism/episodes/episode_1.md | 42 ++++++++++++++++--------------- register.xlsx | Bin 5117 -> 5670 bytes 2 files changed, 22 insertions(+), 20 deletions(-) diff --git a/evangelism/episodes/episode_1.md b/evangelism/episodes/episode_1.md index a10c4a7..2460a08 100644 --- a/evangelism/episodes/episode_1.md +++ b/evangelism/episodes/episode_1.md @@ -21,9 +21,9 @@ better this and future updates. ## The Operation On July 2022, I took a loan with my usual bank. This is an uncollateralized -loan with a fixed amortization schedule. The numbers: +personal loan with a fixed amortization schedule. The main figures: -- Principal: 33.000€ +- Principal: 33,000€ - 120 installments in 120 months (10 years) - APR: 5.99%, APY: 6.16% - Each installment will be of 366.20€ @@ -35,9 +35,9 @@ As this loan has no collateral, there is no margin call or liquidation of any sort. The loan is completely orthogonal to whatever the evolution of bitcoin's price is. -During the following six months, my plan is to swap 5.000€/month into bitcoin. -I do this instead of simply lump-suming everyting to softly minimize the risk -of picking a terrible entrypoint. +During the first six months, my plan is to swap 5.000€/month into bitcoin. I do +this instead of simply lump-suming everyting to softly minimize the risk of +picking a terrible entrypoint. After these six months, I will have a bitcoin stack of a certain amount and around 1.000€. From that point on, the plan is to: @@ -51,19 +51,19 @@ around 1.000€. From that point on, the plan is to: As time passes, two scenarios can take place: - In the SHTF (shit hits the fan) scenario, I run out of bitcoin before the 10 - years have passed and I am left with 0 stash and some amount outstanding with - the bank. I will be forced to keep paying the installments from my personal - pocket and Operation Saylor will have turned into a net negative for me. This - could happen both in case a black swan completely destroy bitcoin and its - value, or simply because bitcoin's € price doesn't go up fast enough to make - a net return. + years have passed and I am left with a 0 btc stash and some outstanding debt + with the bank. I will be forced to keep paying the installments from my + personal pocket and Operation Saylor will have turned into a net negative for + me. This could happen both in case a black swan completely destroys bitcoin + and its value, or simply because bitcoin's market value doesn't go up fast + enough to make a net return. - In the Moon scenario, I manage to pay all the installments by taking small bites of my bitcoin stack and I still have some amount of btc left in the end. I will have succesfully earned value with my bet, and I am left with a nice stack of some unknown value. This would happen in a scenario where bitcoin behaves the way it tipically has for the past 10 years (or with a - slightly watered-down behaviour in terms of return and volatility) and I get - lucky with the early volatility. + slightly watered-down behaviour in terms of both return and volatility) and I + get lucky with the volatility in the earliy months and years. My hope is that Moon scenario will happen, but I am very well aware that SHTF scenario is a serious possibility. @@ -91,18 +91,18 @@ There are several motivations to doing this. bit like a peer review, with the only difference I am reviewing my own plans. - As discussed before, I find personal, real life stories of bitcoiners and their actions fascinating. Macro environment analysis, papers, technical and - economical books, ... They are all great reads. But I think sometimes we also + economics books,... They are all great reads. But I think sometimes we also need simple stories from regular people like us, with all the crisp of the - real life and down to earth practical issues. Bitcoin is, after all, a - grassroots, bottom-up phenomenon. It is the small actions of you, me and - everyone else which compose the emergent behaviour of the network. + real life and down to earth practical issues and details. Bitcoin is, after + all, a grassroots, bottom-up phenomenon. It is the small actions of you, me + and everyone else which compose the emergent behaviour of the network. - I think that, on most forums and communities, there is a dogmatic rejection - to any kinf of idea related to borrowing money for investing. I am the first + to any kind of idea related to borrowing money for investing. I am the first to agree that, for most people, most of the time, it is a terrible idea that should be avoided. But it is also my belief that under the right circumstances, it is a valid strategy. And so I am slightly pissed off because this automatic, parrot-like "NeVEr BorRoW tO INvEsT" comments hijack - any kind of honest debate around this. I hope that these series can be + any kind of honest debate around this. I hope that these series can counterbalance this and get people discussing in a calm and thoughtful manner the possibility of doing something similar to what I am doing. If the angry mobs hijack my posts anyway, at least I hope that whoever is curious about @@ -130,9 +130,11 @@ decision. During the series, I will share my own train of thought and the numbers I ran before pulling the trigger. If you reached this far, thanks for reading. I'll be happy to discuss further -in the comment section. +in the comment section. You can find below the numbers that I will be posting +regularly. --- + ## Stats - BTC stack: diff --git a/register.xlsx b/register.xlsx index c38431256ea8807ea70d79258f8d134c26002ee5..655d8cf22e84d111359f012c7bac1c269af6e7ff 100644 GIT binary patch delta 3811 zcmZu!byQUA+dYKTfQ00bB1jF0gybNS5{kqKctz^s07E0~cxaJS2I-+2WT*k8Q9@E$ zN*ZYe1ZnueUF*9){l4$~b=I@qefB!<-p{+A_k=G8M)^RCh?pKABO?QVz*0(P0zx1V zbDe+>MBH(h5T&WxV<7(Vin%K?T2YUN)OzsNW_HI|THd?Xz()g*J40TWj&HnEEd8!K zKq(^*6VHL~QpUmR<(8iXNHkPcqZZb>mcm#C_-)qlKglAJ{T9$i`PVhM_1{2c zvgp5u`ga4FIa-{+&$v{DNZG~qY9W4=J~$Ns+B|Dj%3re>V$2qO@nPuGqEaaN#tZ-U z=^LGTm6BtX3idAQcarKno&<4mC{|YD!iGj#X}773kT#807Cu^A+>8cE z`gAauw(jy9svprZq#PNN@;-d6Gy#z|QyCm*0akJmOXaet>fS1>J2WBKr35((X2I0K zECQ84Y<5wUs_T=?<*S}$b*6O9zHp#?8#*oQf-i~@#Nh;|ItO7RH=^noSGQHZ1bpfQ>wX)em^ zX6OV(@I4W?e?GA%=fLWzOp|O$ApFg1WitO3$ZNE) zmUD9Hffgy*#_8qB6aoM!A_0Kkb;LLm3W3HZuH(}5=xNj0t&a_&TUAug{O&{ivMvpb zRZJwH^-IW7pj|?cfrT$P9?-0K2qt&MQ$taqW@*Yb%IX@`)Y)WC8^<8`)v>;3!tD}H zmE6wJ@XI}prn!djL4M{=iK^3d_#f(xR4HU9x^|*ZNvK~lD7$_%I_<3t8wN=n zb~b^M5*K) z%B<5k%Hw4oNfJE^ksQ(J6g7DrpIfhH<9C2(gU|VNH!N<;9%(jg`W=?Rp`*hK{ap8@ z10J-ddBP=bSO180;Nqg&GW1Uk9RZPTF9~ zU!jT%5Snh-l*-9sN$Z#o&XsOQjRgL^Jj;>m+3GZz;!$NO!1o@UQg~fKPBSk#o~@nL zv_kf-eNTQqJ%QXrpCfv~-y(d_V8{k4ZUKT z!7>9!DZN*R2H+kk{GqlPm(j6lMOABDyL|grEk@AGS~b zE!D{A+i*;6XhMpQsTgavhvdVOj)H`qL>WLadfhTp^D*&`S`TuS%gc3n-qGG7}qjb?zv#s5ixMM z)l4JYsxf1IjUV16qby{S+aSzdZ;4%|%<6fRW-^7V5w?LGx(mpTq{5l?$>{ri3{xBp;@B>^e91-Xd9-l{c z#_ar#+uyRqKsB&EBmoQ!iKLYh%)t)h|J%CIAT7ZfzT9oim^R_&fVob`yhCrX|Xx7t)tgr zh#=f+!;=s?MCOwaeveE@Ea8;C+~-4}i#i>MN*s4Q?)7IX83El^cN4@L%Zrd4KRMiP zRy#2fsnYkQM)?)Mj1X^HyX|A`8{ua>4kGmao480(RwQLOO21k?s&Rr^MVcL~#Ww|7^{OUjFKkB*=2 z?YKvX*nPQc1Kpf!zsqphKq2yeSt0apX<;zr9PS6YBTzNlU>)klXl`j3Wk|Aqc(`LcWIQrhe|p1|WD?SN&% z>s$fOv*9RgQskIX(s{TYPaVfqyXzy9tI_t|#mm6VPLvMG_Okx4{i6b$?R|UE*j+9O zud5)7@(MGOa&UyPi9SxbTH-8ntzDd78Fi zn+Ask^JapY>w)-&iJq}G5h<4#OYhXW85f-*yienO>*f}Y6PGG<)8cnOdD8q!kyTs| z$9tQQ5)T8H_632Xn&vTf+*^;(>vaZRJ7S=Os}hSU`Mg)I_3pefBRI`dB=hK|Md+hk zW})O9%Q6O}bdYq&r~T35CjEGJdUQ13u~Zy?*25#wGHx&b#l#*w|8SyaM7Xpu&P!eF z`aGvz!OI_W``+N@qP5~&wR{rGNo3^#r{%%k$0mhv$X%9t|Bxc8gRQU@1QV&d+?8vm zco`|y6UaqQe7Wf+bbJW_d|3a?iE(zTTggp8S>a7kl4V2{-0B>v}=gTZh3zyVhex0UYdGg!gwyhn|A41 zr!7#?9fA8X*BN`cm=w))MoHA6zT;9%M_Q;Z*PTr1=>fk42$q#6wtGC@n~C)`le9 z|Fx3pB0DZ5IaseJKE)@=cV-+u`1QO`o+CMLkGZinYCaMAv3j7s!fCH#3Sy`$?NLcm zqrXHZl53pgQs?byeM$ldT}x=29KTh(bWg4|r7IvSRPWbYWtFKiLKfdkG=rop<(aee zcuQb}ZJKWEd1x)}=G6)3#VVOGz7-zSjk2kM>+5`Rj@np0vHN1Aa`>uBg%6%FHleb{ zRPmy^_i+8@bAk)A!!R`pO@si@ME}3cj-X`vXS#Ku5(md)?LxUzD7=kYC+IL^x1vFw z^6ZmeYC)Aq$Df`b9lyaFWMuzh=d!x;T-||HO>k4tdftQGYb|w+H(yK>mrcbX>*B9{ zYc9AkhvsU!-(v><&+KE@+9b1$H<~*p=_i%}YJo_5nkK_&lja9=+m{t`A2m+W5>X!X6e{B=dqH{ZQW0XWW(F z#GAW*(2n0KdhhtH{N2`|^S)7~a&2BQV=&zugkG3TMHW6s8Y?`>;!=^$oogk`bw|C= zI%TRwo9>~Ir!Jn@O4_;|N`5b1yKjV9Lv+Lr!Z4hIAk%WNMd(_l3zlT9gJF!m%F~S> z8JH9Gm7P(`o&B^}nCq=aomfG+fMj$2bV759%XL61p2Q#MV?P%<7{rCSBPbt0Q=wP22_#?3jri^?l6-U9-j5M}06jEcKGc_r zw>pKB=kg@hx9@*B8YzhaQEw~PSw^Kvd+6iZrb_rg9+*fzzq|Xa0GUVqDvxCW+)4v) zJf7(&y+EzL=FBVg%mC|h#w@T?Zl;tGGWjG@g8A87hIOx_y@5O-*$Ov^K-XcfyVtGOIFgVT?PVo4E{UNV<_k( zxGqY+pWVzC+Wq?+5@P%ap%_m(N|TF)1G#R`PtIA~hyZ~4-$fTM^5g*EX?MfJ(FJAU z=!g>Ww6}YpMLt4#CXQv0jA4DIFW3^JNU%6&CPXw)(dK zf}3~FRRmB}q@z+UqeRFEA!3TB_!J7+r~Hk;=04q^^(xDt1|-5wzG^8Zz{0)8aim(2+(-f^#86gCkYc z$#%r?sW^TFOJ!zAN8dIBbz}en0B@)OfRiVNr=@~nZF(?Y5#WiB)^F<;Cw76fTJ8O* zqB(Hd=z4TlU}XOCe+rBst>qfeb}9=`n<#sa|n1 z&8IoATs`opjPwmAeV!jrr7(%+d4k;*L30R8Wv$4^+Bn!j8oy+sezcFx+mAA-+8l|N z!a2do|JkSaXvnGDJ}+9_whxQTUgpUMwc028@3Qv@zRP@Mx(oyjSJg8u|Cm9uu{)WS z@bGsqZj$Ory$;RYOov!_uLBFiMhJa8Vz$0cZ^Y7oouXTgB2KZGoU|e%-qom^ zqoy2Pd3KSJSJ(?4R6Ul{YRop+6~-d5r+(&gUGB2Y3#Sz|h@hbPQ{$fjbw*x^PVQMI z8g_56<@*>fteKKi36p?)pS}T$V!*@^D}44o-fXe4l{OzMUY z;U4n0+C;NuXSL}0kO}a^I<=oZ|6S<`t9;hH4Rk2yrZmSiGbg06 zD!ygsMy>Kbnkn$)g+}?v1jc?yYt-{ z(cSfGd!&Z?tg}C=+dCHBh@}NDMc14TBOETd{}$G&0whMw)%I zT>xlhol>su%ssgd`>G6TE57KE`0eAqKDo_AYh8jQ@!ar6k8rdlE9VN?q(2=#$}?6? 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