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@ -21,9 +21,9 @@ better this and future updates.
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## The Operation
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On July 2022, I took a loan with my usual bank. This is an uncollateralized
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loan with a fixed amortization schedule. The numbers:
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personal loan with a fixed amortization schedule. The main figures:
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- Principal: 33.000€
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- Principal: 33,000€
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- 120 installments in 120 months (10 years)
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- APR: 5.99%, APY: 6.16%
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- Each installment will be of 366.20€
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@ -35,9 +35,9 @@ As this loan has no collateral, there is no margin call or liquidation of any
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sort. The loan is completely orthogonal to whatever the evolution of bitcoin's
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price is.
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During the following six months, my plan is to swap 5.000€/month into bitcoin.
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I do this instead of simply lump-suming everyting to softly minimize the risk
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of picking a terrible entrypoint.
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During the first six months, my plan is to swap 5.000€/month into bitcoin. I do
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this instead of simply lump-suming everyting to softly minimize the risk of
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picking a terrible entrypoint.
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After these six months, I will have a bitcoin stack of a certain amount and
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around 1.000€. From that point on, the plan is to:
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@ -51,19 +51,19 @@ around 1.000€. From that point on, the plan is to:
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As time passes, two scenarios can take place:
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- In the SHTF (shit hits the fan) scenario, I run out of bitcoin before the 10
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years have passed and I am left with 0 stash and some amount outstanding with
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the bank. I will be forced to keep paying the installments from my personal
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pocket and Operation Saylor will have turned into a net negative for me. This
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could happen both in case a black swan completely destroy bitcoin and its
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value, or simply because bitcoin's € price doesn't go up fast enough to make
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a net return.
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years have passed and I am left with a 0 btc stash and some outstanding debt
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with the bank. I will be forced to keep paying the installments from my
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personal pocket and Operation Saylor will have turned into a net negative for
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me. This could happen both in case a black swan completely destroys bitcoin
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and its value, or simply because bitcoin's market value doesn't go up fast
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enough to make a net return.
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- In the Moon scenario, I manage to pay all the installments by taking small
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bites of my bitcoin stack and I still have some amount of btc left in the
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end. I will have succesfully earned value with my bet, and I am left with a
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nice stack of some unknown value. This would happen in a scenario where
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bitcoin behaves the way it tipically has for the past 10 years (or with a
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slightly watered-down behaviour in terms of return and volatility) and I get
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lucky with the early volatility.
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slightly watered-down behaviour in terms of both return and volatility) and I
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get lucky with the volatility in the earliy months and years.
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My hope is that Moon scenario will happen, but I am very well aware that SHTF
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scenario is a serious possibility.
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@ -91,18 +91,18 @@ There are several motivations to doing this.
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bit like a peer review, with the only difference I am reviewing my own plans.
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- As discussed before, I find personal, real life stories of bitcoiners and
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their actions fascinating. Macro environment analysis, papers, technical and
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economical books, ... They are all great reads. But I think sometimes we also
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economics books,... They are all great reads. But I think sometimes we also
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need simple stories from regular people like us, with all the crisp of the
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real life and down to earth practical issues. Bitcoin is, after all, a
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grassroots, bottom-up phenomenon. It is the small actions of you, me and
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everyone else which compose the emergent behaviour of the network.
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real life and down to earth practical issues and details. Bitcoin is, after
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all, a grassroots, bottom-up phenomenon. It is the small actions of you, me
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and everyone else which compose the emergent behaviour of the network.
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- I think that, on most forums and communities, there is a dogmatic rejection
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to any kinf of idea related to borrowing money for investing. I am the first
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to any kind of idea related to borrowing money for investing. I am the first
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to agree that, for most people, most of the time, it is a terrible idea that
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should be avoided. But it is also my belief that under the right
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circumstances, it is a valid strategy. And so I am slightly pissed off
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because this automatic, parrot-like "NeVEr BorRoW tO INvEsT" comments hijack
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any kind of honest debate around this. I hope that these series can be
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any kind of honest debate around this. I hope that these series can
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counterbalance this and get people discussing in a calm and thoughtful manner
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the possibility of doing something similar to what I am doing. If the angry
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mobs hijack my posts anyway, at least I hope that whoever is curious about
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@ -130,9 +130,11 @@ decision. During the series, I will share my own train of thought and the
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numbers I ran before pulling the trigger.
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If you reached this far, thanks for reading. I'll be happy to discuss further
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in the comment section.
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in the comment section. You can find below the numbers that I will be posting
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regularly.
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---
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## Stats
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- BTC stack:
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