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---
url: https://stacker.news/items/47539
---
# Operation Saylor Episode - 1/120
Hi there, welcome to Operation Saylor series.
I have decided to take a loan to invest in Bitcoin. I will make a series of
monthly updates here to track the evolution of this operation I have dubbed
Saylor (in honor of [Michael Saylor](https://twitter.com/saylor), whose bold
bet on Bitcoin and willigness to promote it where strong inspirations for this
adventure).
I have decided to take a loan to invest in Bitcoin. I will make a series of monthly updates here to track the evolution
of this operation I have dubbed Saylor (in honor of [Michael Saylor](https://twitter.com/saylor), whose bold bet on
Bitcoin and willigness to promote it where strong inspirations for this adventure).
My goal with sharing this experience is to allow everyone to learn whatever can
be learnt from my plan and
execution. [Jamespunk great blog on his DCA path](https://er-bybitcoin.com/)
was and is a great example of how a real life, first person narration can be
very instructive. I hope this series can fulfill a similar role for this
different investment approach.
My goal with sharing this experience is to allow everyone to learn whatever can be learnt from my plan and execution. I
draw inspiration from [Jamespunk's great blog on his bitcoin DCA path](https://er-bybitcoin.com/)
, which was and is a great example of how a real life, first person narration can be very instructive. I hope this
series can fulfill a similar role for this different investment approach.
As this is the first episode, I'll provide some context so that you understand
better this and future updates.
As this is the first episode, I'll provide some context so that you understand better this and future updates.
## The Operation
On July 2022, I took a loan with my usual bank. This is an uncollateralized
personal loan with a fixed amortization schedule. The main figures:
On July 2022, I took a loan with my usual bank. This is an uncollateralized personal loan with a fixed amortization
schedule. The main figures:
- Principal: 33,000€
- 120 installments in 120 months (10 years)
@ -31,125 +30,95 @@ personal loan with a fixed amortization schedule. The main figures:
- Early amortization penalty of 1%
- No opening costs
As this loan has no collateral, there is no margin call or liquidation of any
sort. The loan is completely orthogonal to whatever the evolution of bitcoin's
price is.
As this loan has no collateral, there is no margin call or liquidation of any sort. The loan is completely orthogonal
to whatever the evolution of bitcoin's price is.
During the first six months, my plan is to swap 5.000€/month into bitcoin. I do
this instead of simply lump-suming everyting to softly minimize the risk of
picking a terrible entrypoint.
During the first six months, my plan is to swap 5.000€/month into bitcoin. I do this instead of simply lump-suming
everyting today to softly minimize the risk of picking a terrible entrypoint.
After these six months, I will have a bitcoin stack of a certain amount and
around 1.000€. From that point on, the plan is to:
After these six months, I will have a bitcoin stack of a certain amount and around 1.000€. From that point on, the plan
is to:
- Pay the installments each month.
- Whenever the € stash goes very low, sell a bit of bitcoin back for € to pay
for the next installment. Goal here is to keep as much value in bitcoin as
possible and only go back to € tactically to cover the installments.
- Repeat until 10 years have passed.
- Whenever the € stash goes very low, sell a bit of bitcoin back for € to pay for the next installment. Goal here is to
keep as much value in bitcoin as possible and only go back to € tactically to cover the installments.
- Repeat until 10 years have passed and the loan is paid backed.
As time passes, two scenarios can take place:
- In the SHTF (shit hits the fan) scenario, I run out of bitcoin before the 10
years have passed and I am left with a 0 btc stash and some outstanding debt
with the bank. I will be forced to keep paying the installments from my
personal pocket and Operation Saylor will have turned into a net negative for
me. This could happen both in case a black swan completely destroys bitcoin
and its value, or simply because bitcoin's market value doesn't go up fast
enough to make a net return.
- In the Moon scenario, I manage to pay all the installments by taking small
bites of my bitcoin stack and I still have some amount of btc left in the
end. I will have succesfully earned value with my bet, and I am left with a
nice stack of some unknown value. This would happen in a scenario where
bitcoin behaves the way it tipically has for the past 10 years (or with a
slightly watered-down behaviour in terms of both return and volatility) and I
get lucky with the volatility in the earliy months and years.
- In the SHTF (shit hits the fan) scenario, the bitcoin stack of Operation Saylor goes dry before the 10 years have
passed and I am left with 0 btc and some outstanding debt with the bank. I will be forced to keep paying the
installments from my personal pocket and Operation Saylor will have turned into a net negative for me. This could
happen both in case a black swan completely destroys bitcoin and its value, or simply because bitcoin's market value
doesn't go up fast enough to make a net return.
- In the Moon scenario, I manage to pay all the installments by taking small bites of my bitcoin stack and I still have
some amount of btc left in the end. If this is the case, I will have succesfully earned value with my bet, and I am
left with a nice stack of some unknown value. This would happen in a scenario where bitcoin behaves the way it
tipically has for the past 10 years (or with a slightly watered-down behaviour in terms of both return and
volatility, but still trending upwards) and I get lucky with the volatility in the early months and years.
My hope is that Moon scenario will happen, but I am very well aware that SHTF
scenario is a serious possibility.
My hope is that Moon scenario will happen, but I am very well aware that SHTF scenario is a serious possibility.
## Are you crazy stupid? Never borrow money for investing
I am aware that there is a not negligible probability of losing several
thousands of euros with this operation.
I am aware that there is a not negligible probability of losing several thousands of euros with this operation. But,
after carefully judging, I think there is also a significant chance of getting a great upside. After playing with
different simulations and hypothesis, I decided that the expected outcome looked net positive and decided to pull the
trigger.
But, after carefully judging, I think there is also a significant chance of
getting a great upside. After playing with different simulations and
hypothesis, I decided that the expected outcome looked net positive and decided
to pull the trigger.
I am also taking a calculated risk. Given my personal finances and life
circunstances, the SHTF scenario would be a nasty blow but not a death
sentence. Even if I get hacked on day 1 and lose all the money, I still expect
to have a plate on the table every day and a roof over my head.
I am also taking a calculated risk. Given my personal finances and life circunstances, the SHTF scenario would be a
nasty blow but not a death sentence. Even if I get hacked on day 1 and lose all the money, I still expect to have a
plate on the table every day and a roof over my head.
## Why make it a series
There are several motivations to doing this.
- Explaning and documenting my plans helps me reflect on them deeply. It's a
bit like a peer review, with the only difference I am reviewing my own plans.
- As discussed before, I find personal, real life stories of bitcoiners and
their actions fascinating. Macro environment analysis, papers, technical and
economics books,... They are all great reads. But I think sometimes we also
need simple stories from regular people like us, with all the crisp of the
real life and down to earth practical issues and details. Bitcoin is, after
all, a grassroots, bottom-up phenomenon. It is the small actions of you, me
and everyone else which compose the emergent behaviour of the network.
- I think that, on most forums and communities, there is a dogmatic rejection
to any kind of idea related to borrowing money for investing. I am the first
to agree that, for most people, most of the time, it is a terrible idea that
should be avoided. But it is also my belief that under the right
circumstances, it is a valid strategy. And so I am slightly pissed off
because this automatic, parrot-like "NeVEr BorRoW tO INvEsT" comments hijack
any kind of honest debate around this. I hope that these series can
counterbalance this and get people discussing in a calm and thoughtful manner
the possibility of doing something similar to what I am doing. If the angry
mobs hijack my posts anyway, at least I hope that whoever is curious about
the outcomes of taking this seemingly crazy and bonkers course of action can
ignore the deniers and simply read my story.
- Explaning and documenting my plans helps me reflect on them deeply. It's a bit like a peer review, with the only
difference I am reviewing my own plans.
- As discussed before, I find personal, real life stories of bitcoiners and their actions fascinating. Macro
environment analysis, papers, technical and economics books,... They are all great reads. But I think sometimes we
also need simple stories from regular people like us, with all the crisp of the real life and down to earth practical
issues and details. Bitcoin is, after all, a grassroots, bottom-up phenomenon. It is the small actions of you, me and
everyone else which compose the emergent behaviour of the network.
- I think that, on most forums and communities, there is a dogmatic rejection to any kind of idea related to borrowing
money for investing. I am the first one to agree that, for most people, most of the time, it is a terrible idea that
should be avoided. But it is also my belief that under the right circumstances, it is a valid strategy. And so I am
slightly pissed off because this automatic, parrot-like "NeVEr BorRoW tO INvEsT" comments hijack any kind of honest,
open-minded debate around this option. I hope that these series can counterbalance this and get people discussing in
a calm and thoughtful manner the possibility of doing something similar to what I am doing. If the angry mobs hijack
my posts anyway, at least I hope that whoever is curious about the outcomes of taking this seemingly crazy and
bonkers course of action can ignore the deniers and simply read my story.
## Why not simply DCA with a part of your salary isntead
I am. This operation happens on top of my already regular DCA schedule. So you
could say I am doubling down.
I am. This operation happens on top of my already regular DCA schedule. So you could say I am doubling down.
As time passes, comparing Operation Saylor to having DCAd the amount equal to
the paid installments will be an interesting analysis.
As time passes, comparing Operation Saylor to having DCA-d the amount equal to the paid installments will be an
interesting analysis.
## So should I do this as well
The answer that most probably fits your circumstances is no.
But, depending on your personal finances, risk aversion, other investments and
what kind of loans and conditions you have access to, there is a chance that
borrowing to invest might be a suitable option for you.
But, depending on your personal finances, risk aversion, other investments and what kind of loans and conditions you
have access to, there is a chance that borrowing to invest might be a suitable option for you.
I invite you to run your own analysis and put a lot of thinking into this
decision. During the series, I will share my own train of thought and the
numbers I ran before pulling the trigger.
I invite you to run your own analysis and put a lot of thinking into this decision. During the series, I will share my
own train of thought and the numbers I ran before pulling the trigger.
If you reached this far, thanks for reading. I'll be happy to discuss further
in the comment section. You can find below the numbers that I will be posting
regularly.
If you reached this far, thanks for reading. I'll be happy to discuss further in the comment section. You can find
below the numbers that I will be posting regularly. I will also post some thoughts/ideas/whatever relevant comes to
mind on each episode. But for this month I will close here. I already stole enough of your time and attention.
---
## Stats
- BTC stack:
- € stack:
- Current total value in €:
- € into BTC:
- Paid back to bank:
- Outstanding debt:
- Installments to go:
Charts
- BTC churn chart
- Value of stack vs Outstanding debt with the bank
## Log
<Explain something interesting here>
- BTC stack: 0.2083 BTC
- € stack: 28,000 €
- Current total value in €: 32,761 €
- € into BTC: 5,000 €
- Paid back to bank: 0 €
- Outstanding debt: 43944.33€
- Installments to go: 120

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# Operation Saylor Episode - 2/120
Hi again and welcome to another episode of the Operation Saylor. This is update number X, corresponding to August 2022.
If you are reading this for first time, you might want to check [Episode 1](https://stacker.news/items/47539), where my
plan and details are explained. That will get you in context.
---
## Stats
- BTC stack: ??? BTC
- € stack: 22633.80 €
- Current total value in €: ??? €
- € into BTC: 10,000 €
- Paid back to bank: 366.20 €
- Outstanding debt: 43578.13 €
- Installments to go: 119
Charts
- BTC churn chart
- Value of stack vs Outstanding debt with the bank
---
## Log
First month down. This month I had to pay the first installment to the bank. Dealing with a traditional bank feels
awkward, but a deal is a deal and it must be respected I guess.
These days I have been thinking into how I got into investing years ago. As many others, I was placing my money in
stocks and bonds before Bitcoin came around and completely changed the investment landscape.
I had always kind of been interested in what should I do with my money. As soon as I got my first decent job and I was
having some surplus after paying the bills each month, I had this itchy intuition that just having that money sitting
in my account was stupid, and that I "should do something" with it. As I guess it is the case with most of the
population in the west (and probably the world), I was completely financially illiterate, so I had zero clue about how
and where to start.
One day, I was doing one of my courses in coursera (something related to business metrics, can't tell which one it was
exactly). The professor was using data from the SP500 for some case as part of the course. Then, my attention drifted
completely from the course content to the SP500 data itself. I saw the long term performance of it and some switches
flipped in my brain. As everyone, I had been told that the stock market is this crazy rodeo of wild volatility where
you are risking losing everything. But seeing a 40+ years SP500 Total Return chart was painting a different story in
front of me. If you combine this with learning about DCA, the Boglehead point of view, and devouring MMM style contents
for weeks and months, my young and naive self was able to quickly draw a few intuitions:
- That if you are in for the long-term, you are mostly safe.
- That losing everyting is rather difficult. Even if you buy the top, the drawdowns are far from losing everything.
- That DCA smoothes the hell out of volatility, so if you are consistent and stick around for a few years, everything
would feel much more calm than it looks like in the charts.
I basically fell down the FIRE and Boglehead rabbit hole, and that was my whole plan until Bitcoin came around and
things changed. I still hold my old Boglehead portfolio. Should I liquidate all of that and put into bitcoin? I don't
think I will for now. I will happily recognize that the traditional financial markets feel quite rigged (GME, bailouts,
bonds living out of central banks stimulus, ...), which is a strong motivation to invest in something as pure,
transparent and neutral as Bitcoin. But investing in companies still makes sense top me, simply from the economics
textbook proof. Plus, taxes.
I would love to see a hyperbitcoinized future in which Bitcoin has won and its value has become stable due to becoming
the preferent risk-free store of value and thus having a huge size. And in such a world, I dream that we would be able
to buy shares from companies with our own bitcoin, and that the traditional investment, in its own version 2.0, would
make sense again. Basically, only businesses that offered a reasonable reward for the risks implied in investing in
them would stay afloat, because otherwise, people would jsut keep their savings in bitcoin. A very different picture
from our current fiat system where we are pretty much forced into investing our savings into risky investments in order
to keep them relatively safe from the constant currency devaluation that is opressing us (in case you want to dive
deeper on this situation, it is nicely explained in the last book from Saifedean
Ammous, [The Fiat Standard](https://en.es1lib.org/book/17416829/6f3cac)).
So that's a brief summary. I am grateful that I started in traditional investments, even with all the flaws and risks
associated with the status quo it has. Because it was good training to:
- Getting used to see your networth dance up and down through the chart.
- Doing research, judging an investment, drafting a plan and sticking to it.
- Growing confidence in the decisions that you make by accepting that shit might hit the fan, but that's part of life.
There is always uncertainty and, if you are trying to find a way to be 100% sure that things will turn out right
before you press the buy button... you will never press it.
And all of those things are transferable to bitcoin. I am not sure if I would had gone into Bitcoin in the first place
had I not experienced all of that first.
Enough rant for this month. Thanks for reading and see you in the next episode.