From 85f65a2892874da359b1f2ddad0928207867d0b3 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: pablo Date: Thu, 21 Jul 2022 09:34:54 +0200 Subject: [PATCH] . --- evangelism/episodes/episode_1.md | 177 +++++++++++++------------------ evangelism/episodes/episode_2.md | 84 +++++++++++++++ register.xlsx | Bin 5670 -> 5668 bytes 3 files changed, 157 insertions(+), 104 deletions(-) create mode 100644 evangelism/episodes/episode_2.md diff --git a/evangelism/episodes/episode_1.md b/evangelism/episodes/episode_1.md index 2460a08..1b0293d 100644 --- a/evangelism/episodes/episode_1.md +++ b/evangelism/episodes/episode_1.md @@ -1,27 +1,26 @@ +--- +url: https://stacker.news/items/47539 +--- + # Operation Saylor Episode - 1/120 Hi there, welcome to Operation Saylor series. -I have decided to take a loan to invest in Bitcoin. I will make a series of -monthly updates here to track the evolution of this operation I have dubbed -Saylor (in honor of [Michael Saylor](https://twitter.com/saylor), whose bold -bet on Bitcoin and willigness to promote it where strong inspirations for this -adventure). +I have decided to take a loan to invest in Bitcoin. I will make a series of monthly updates here to track the evolution +of this operation I have dubbed Saylor (in honor of [Michael Saylor](https://twitter.com/saylor), whose bold bet on +Bitcoin and willigness to promote it where strong inspirations for this adventure). -My goal with sharing this experience is to allow everyone to learn whatever can -be learnt from my plan and -execution. [Jamespunk great blog on his DCA path](https://er-bybitcoin.com/) -was and is a great example of how a real life, first person narration can be -very instructive. I hope this series can fulfill a similar role for this -different investment approach. +My goal with sharing this experience is to allow everyone to learn whatever can be learnt from my plan and execution. I +draw inspiration from [Jamespunk's great blog on his bitcoin DCA path](https://er-bybitcoin.com/) +, which was and is a great example of how a real life, first person narration can be very instructive. I hope this +series can fulfill a similar role for this different investment approach. -As this is the first episode, I'll provide some context so that you understand -better this and future updates. +As this is the first episode, I'll provide some context so that you understand better this and future updates. ## The Operation -On July 2022, I took a loan with my usual bank. This is an uncollateralized -personal loan with a fixed amortization schedule. The main figures: +On July 2022, I took a loan with my usual bank. This is an uncollateralized personal loan with a fixed amortization +schedule. The main figures: - Principal: 33,000€ - 120 installments in 120 months (10 years) @@ -31,125 +30,95 @@ personal loan with a fixed amortization schedule. The main figures: - Early amortization penalty of 1% - No opening costs -As this loan has no collateral, there is no margin call or liquidation of any -sort. The loan is completely orthogonal to whatever the evolution of bitcoin's -price is. +As this loan has no collateral, there is no margin call or liquidation of any sort. The loan is completely orthogonal +to whatever the evolution of bitcoin's price is. -During the first six months, my plan is to swap 5.000€/month into bitcoin. I do -this instead of simply lump-suming everyting to softly minimize the risk of -picking a terrible entrypoint. +During the first six months, my plan is to swap 5.000€/month into bitcoin. I do this instead of simply lump-suming +everyting today to softly minimize the risk of picking a terrible entrypoint. -After these six months, I will have a bitcoin stack of a certain amount and -around 1.000€. From that point on, the plan is to: +After these six months, I will have a bitcoin stack of a certain amount and around 1.000€. From that point on, the plan +is to: - Pay the installments each month. -- Whenever the € stash goes very low, sell a bit of bitcoin back for € to pay - for the next installment. Goal here is to keep as much value in bitcoin as - possible and only go back to € tactically to cover the installments. -- Repeat until 10 years have passed. +- Whenever the € stash goes very low, sell a bit of bitcoin back for € to pay for the next installment. Goal here is to + keep as much value in bitcoin as possible and only go back to € tactically to cover the installments. +- Repeat until 10 years have passed and the loan is paid backed. As time passes, two scenarios can take place: -- In the SHTF (shit hits the fan) scenario, I run out of bitcoin before the 10 - years have passed and I am left with a 0 btc stash and some outstanding debt - with the bank. I will be forced to keep paying the installments from my - personal pocket and Operation Saylor will have turned into a net negative for - me. This could happen both in case a black swan completely destroys bitcoin - and its value, or simply because bitcoin's market value doesn't go up fast - enough to make a net return. -- In the Moon scenario, I manage to pay all the installments by taking small - bites of my bitcoin stack and I still have some amount of btc left in the - end. I will have succesfully earned value with my bet, and I am left with a - nice stack of some unknown value. This would happen in a scenario where - bitcoin behaves the way it tipically has for the past 10 years (or with a - slightly watered-down behaviour in terms of both return and volatility) and I - get lucky with the volatility in the earliy months and years. +- In the SHTF (shit hits the fan) scenario, the bitcoin stack of Operation Saylor goes dry before the 10 years have + passed and I am left with 0 btc and some outstanding debt with the bank. I will be forced to keep paying the + installments from my personal pocket and Operation Saylor will have turned into a net negative for me. This could + happen both in case a black swan completely destroys bitcoin and its value, or simply because bitcoin's market value + doesn't go up fast enough to make a net return. +- In the Moon scenario, I manage to pay all the installments by taking small bites of my bitcoin stack and I still have + some amount of btc left in the end. If this is the case, I will have succesfully earned value with my bet, and I am + left with a nice stack of some unknown value. This would happen in a scenario where bitcoin behaves the way it + tipically has for the past 10 years (or with a slightly watered-down behaviour in terms of both return and + volatility, but still trending upwards) and I get lucky with the volatility in the early months and years. -My hope is that Moon scenario will happen, but I am very well aware that SHTF -scenario is a serious possibility. +My hope is that Moon scenario will happen, but I am very well aware that SHTF scenario is a serious possibility. ## Are you crazy stupid? Never borrow money for investing -I am aware that there is a not negligible probability of losing several -thousands of euros with this operation. +I am aware that there is a not negligible probability of losing several thousands of euros with this operation. But, +after carefully judging, I think there is also a significant chance of getting a great upside. After playing with +different simulations and hypothesis, I decided that the expected outcome looked net positive and decided to pull the +trigger. -But, after carefully judging, I think there is also a significant chance of -getting a great upside. After playing with different simulations and -hypothesis, I decided that the expected outcome looked net positive and decided -to pull the trigger. - -I am also taking a calculated risk. Given my personal finances and life -circunstances, the SHTF scenario would be a nasty blow but not a death -sentence. Even if I get hacked on day 1 and lose all the money, I still expect -to have a plate on the table every day and a roof over my head. +I am also taking a calculated risk. Given my personal finances and life circunstances, the SHTF scenario would be a +nasty blow but not a death sentence. Even if I get hacked on day 1 and lose all the money, I still expect to have a +plate on the table every day and a roof over my head. ## Why make it a series There are several motivations to doing this. -- Explaning and documenting my plans helps me reflect on them deeply. It's a - bit like a peer review, with the only difference I am reviewing my own plans. -- As discussed before, I find personal, real life stories of bitcoiners and - their actions fascinating. Macro environment analysis, papers, technical and - economics books,... They are all great reads. But I think sometimes we also - need simple stories from regular people like us, with all the crisp of the - real life and down to earth practical issues and details. Bitcoin is, after - all, a grassroots, bottom-up phenomenon. It is the small actions of you, me - and everyone else which compose the emergent behaviour of the network. -- I think that, on most forums and communities, there is a dogmatic rejection - to any kind of idea related to borrowing money for investing. I am the first - to agree that, for most people, most of the time, it is a terrible idea that - should be avoided. But it is also my belief that under the right - circumstances, it is a valid strategy. And so I am slightly pissed off - because this automatic, parrot-like "NeVEr BorRoW tO INvEsT" comments hijack - any kind of honest debate around this. I hope that these series can - counterbalance this and get people discussing in a calm and thoughtful manner - the possibility of doing something similar to what I am doing. If the angry - mobs hijack my posts anyway, at least I hope that whoever is curious about - the outcomes of taking this seemingly crazy and bonkers course of action can - ignore the deniers and simply read my story. +- Explaning and documenting my plans helps me reflect on them deeply. It's a bit like a peer review, with the only + difference I am reviewing my own plans. +- As discussed before, I find personal, real life stories of bitcoiners and their actions fascinating. Macro + environment analysis, papers, technical and economics books,... They are all great reads. But I think sometimes we + also need simple stories from regular people like us, with all the crisp of the real life and down to earth practical + issues and details. Bitcoin is, after all, a grassroots, bottom-up phenomenon. It is the small actions of you, me and + everyone else which compose the emergent behaviour of the network. +- I think that, on most forums and communities, there is a dogmatic rejection to any kind of idea related to borrowing + money for investing. I am the first one to agree that, for most people, most of the time, it is a terrible idea that + should be avoided. But it is also my belief that under the right circumstances, it is a valid strategy. And so I am + slightly pissed off because this automatic, parrot-like "NeVEr BorRoW tO INvEsT" comments hijack any kind of honest, + open-minded debate around this option. I hope that these series can counterbalance this and get people discussing in + a calm and thoughtful manner the possibility of doing something similar to what I am doing. If the angry mobs hijack + my posts anyway, at least I hope that whoever is curious about the outcomes of taking this seemingly crazy and + bonkers course of action can ignore the deniers and simply read my story. ## Why not simply DCA with a part of your salary isntead -I am. This operation happens on top of my already regular DCA schedule. So you -could say I am doubling down. +I am. This operation happens on top of my already regular DCA schedule. So you could say I am doubling down. -As time passes, comparing Operation Saylor to having DCAd the amount equal to -the paid installments will be an interesting analysis. +As time passes, comparing Operation Saylor to having DCA-d the amount equal to the paid installments will be an +interesting analysis. ## So should I do this as well The answer that most probably fits your circumstances is no. -But, depending on your personal finances, risk aversion, other investments and -what kind of loans and conditions you have access to, there is a chance that -borrowing to invest might be a suitable option for you. +But, depending on your personal finances, risk aversion, other investments and what kind of loans and conditions you +have access to, there is a chance that borrowing to invest might be a suitable option for you. -I invite you to run your own analysis and put a lot of thinking into this -decision. During the series, I will share my own train of thought and the -numbers I ran before pulling the trigger. +I invite you to run your own analysis and put a lot of thinking into this decision. During the series, I will share my +own train of thought and the numbers I ran before pulling the trigger. -If you reached this far, thanks for reading. I'll be happy to discuss further -in the comment section. You can find below the numbers that I will be posting -regularly. +If you reached this far, thanks for reading. I'll be happy to discuss further in the comment section. You can find +below the numbers that I will be posting regularly. I will also post some thoughts/ideas/whatever relevant comes to +mind on each episode. But for this month I will close here. I already stole enough of your time and attention. --- ## Stats -- BTC stack: -- € stack: -- Current total value in €: -- € into BTC: -- Paid back to bank: -- Outstanding debt: -- Installments to go: - -Charts - -- BTC churn chart -- Value of stack vs Outstanding debt with the bank - -## Log - - +- BTC stack: 0.2083 BTC +- € stack: 28,000 € +- Current total value in €: 32,761 € +- € into BTC: 5,000 € +- Paid back to bank: 0 € +- Outstanding debt: 43944.33€ +- Installments to go: 120 \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/evangelism/episodes/episode_2.md b/evangelism/episodes/episode_2.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..029e262 --- /dev/null +++ b/evangelism/episodes/episode_2.md @@ -0,0 +1,84 @@ +# Operation Saylor Episode - 2/120 + +Hi again and welcome to another episode of the Operation Saylor. This is update number X, corresponding to August 2022. + +If you are reading this for first time, you might want to check [Episode 1](https://stacker.news/items/47539), where my +plan and details are explained. That will get you in context. + +--- + +## Stats + +- BTC stack: ??? BTC +- € stack: 22633.80 € +- Current total value in €: ??? € +- € into BTC: 10,000 € +- Paid back to bank: 366.20 € +- Outstanding debt: 43578.13 € +- Installments to go: 119 + +Charts + +- BTC churn chart +- Value of stack vs Outstanding debt with the bank + +--- + +## Log + +First month down. This month I had to pay the first installment to the bank. Dealing with a traditional bank feels +awkward, but a deal is a deal and it must be respected I guess. + +These days I have been thinking into how I got into investing years ago. As many others, I was placing my money in +stocks and bonds before Bitcoin came around and completely changed the investment landscape. + +I had always kind of been interested in what should I do with my money. As soon as I got my first decent job and I was +having some surplus after paying the bills each month, I had this itchy intuition that just having that money sitting +in my account was stupid, and that I "should do something" with it. As I guess it is the case with most of the +population in the west (and probably the world), I was completely financially illiterate, so I had zero clue about how +and where to start. + +One day, I was doing one of my courses in coursera (something related to business metrics, can't tell which one it was +exactly). The professor was using data from the SP500 for some case as part of the course. Then, my attention drifted +completely from the course content to the SP500 data itself. I saw the long term performance of it and some switches +flipped in my brain. As everyone, I had been told that the stock market is this crazy rodeo of wild volatility where +you are risking losing everything. But seeing a 40+ years SP500 Total Return chart was painting a different story in +front of me. If you combine this with learning about DCA, the Boglehead point of view, and devouring MMM style contents +for weeks and months, my young and naive self was able to quickly draw a few intuitions: + +- That if you are in for the long-term, you are mostly safe. +- That losing everyting is rather difficult. Even if you buy the top, the drawdowns are far from losing everything. +- That DCA smoothes the hell out of volatility, so if you are consistent and stick around for a few years, everything + would feel much more calm than it looks like in the charts. + +I basically fell down the FIRE and Boglehead rabbit hole, and that was my whole plan until Bitcoin came around and +things changed. I still hold my old Boglehead portfolio. Should I liquidate all of that and put into bitcoin? I don't +think I will for now. I will happily recognize that the traditional financial markets feel quite rigged (GME, bailouts, +bonds living out of central banks stimulus, ...), which is a strong motivation to invest in something as pure, +transparent and neutral as Bitcoin. But investing in companies still makes sense top me, simply from the economics +textbook proof. Plus, taxes. + +I would love to see a hyperbitcoinized future in which Bitcoin has won and its value has become stable due to becoming +the preferent risk-free store of value and thus having a huge size. And in such a world, I dream that we would be able +to buy shares from companies with our own bitcoin, and that the traditional investment, in its own version 2.0, would +make sense again. Basically, only businesses that offered a reasonable reward for the risks implied in investing in +them would stay afloat, because otherwise, people would jsut keep their savings in bitcoin. A very different picture +from our current fiat system where we are pretty much forced into investing our savings into risky investments in order +to keep them relatively safe from the constant currency devaluation that is opressing us (in case you want to dive +deeper on this situation, it is nicely explained in the last book from Saifedean +Ammous, [The Fiat Standard](https://en.es1lib.org/book/17416829/6f3cac)). + +So that's a brief summary. I am grateful that I started in traditional investments, even with all the flaws and risks +associated with the status quo it has. Because it was good training to: + +- Getting used to see your networth dance up and down through the chart. +- Doing research, judging an investment, drafting a plan and sticking to it. +- Growing confidence in the decisions that you make by accepting that shit might hit the fan, but that's part of life. + There is always uncertainty and, if you are trying to find a way to be 100% sure that things will turn out right + before you press the buy button... you will never press it. + +And all of those things are transferable to bitcoin. I am not sure if I would had gone into Bitcoin in the first place +had I not experienced all of that first. + +Enough rant for this month. Thanks for reading and see you in the next episode. + diff --git a/register.xlsx b/register.xlsx index 655d8cf22e84d111359f012c7bac1c269af6e7ff..a0e6e80d3ebb0d7f4985f1c2a8f50aca1945a373 100644 GIT binary patch delta 2370 zcmY*bXHXN`5)M6(C<#df2_-;~7QrZJKoLZWC{001q)L7CE;W%35fO+YB2h6Y5PA>< zqNt#tpfvFYq)L?%B2uIHxWt+FuJ`=dJv(Q2&(40|?CfJqF$QdPj*lM>00MykF>5=xdzn|ctU-k)<=o%l2to=N3P!*Fql{xMJYc|Ss z={I4#RWYtzdSV{X6CxjbE%!Y};Tg5$HEJ<}-U_3C4hU)QL=oX7=__m3%yY$OeNg*b ztlTNZ;Ew_s(VzWp?#mzV>QiXxSh}RnuB)B~1(gO3QxlvbWcExZ9|2wjlbEMhlYR!y z3-ZcCiHcigKEIBV_CyzaH@u>vx)4PVF(yad^T>aCxVc<%2W{z|I~J_n_??9$x}Pl& zEI1JuMGAZ7WllVkDzh9yvIBRp2v?5hh35X8WAT~Z1z?@2PMwA#g;~AL@jXXm3hwl3 z&B&RmE4Sm!jVO<6#Rf0Q=!uw3rDU^yi9B*tWQO3G=Z2&kM0DrA-dQTfd~$Nj6EYyA zAAmBURCGDy$Ltx2^3GOGNYLoi;kyn4E$R%(H+rFlTg2yHFAXO)*fBnj`*q?f)D#<+ zkJ*=Y!d5YXEb*!+LO46xtNOZETw`EvRV77By9ho$jY((9xU6;(XQ(r)eo2ERrq#TDnAjPE++F1 z-TRfDN(dO~=kAoR;NlOC4=7-Ra@l(c1LdamA5Xci$9khGOHeDPkFlD(^C2TKVxjeQ z*?yD-Dvf2R5WQ|V?dvVi6q&K{xUC`1X}^O?B^vXcy$4ox0V~FGWORCuRpYYHWDsU3 zN}OAg(esHG7*Uao3Cf$xetMyT8_sBZxsx>DrUcd&I)=UcP=4F}bv+4~1+_*%WfZ(r z<#milO4FCIleR`{SD!jglDtRedyx|tJ6Z4Tc zXtxVCl2?Y z2U-a)r^6}@PCWQ-0~6T$1pg7SL!1*DiKaf3>JoOX85WzZ7Z8zBs%if9_IjMs0$&}W ze*jRb=ZDg-XcFWd(*fB7f_-}(w(705QVzPXPl9y1ni=ekpYhL~+CalvHuv3JnO2Cs zX3bOI& zHuzm-Nu`d-BelSjvE}EZ!DvSyNcowC@q#x-18( zw5TPUllg8d?dHNP1J^Pp8>cOqjZ?SuGJZh~_-}_jfgmxM7RjSRwS(l;%Ml4VjSI6c z1HD@{?poLNy|6kb1jNXImN_s103aF(0Q@&^({c)24x5ybhe(? znbh;&qz0y6Dm?eBcoeMvO)^~CQlI$U(vh`-FWtMa`C_|I*8Pj{Skg6Hd7wp)yR6mc zF&t#m-#L>!eFKZ9qVp_Xx5p_){W@+ioT?@I;c^3(paZ_&73ssKT}vrS-V#i?iS6*R zB-b`O2ghVgt&J3J@o*dC&z~L60ssI6o`3gc%?1D zif*sB-k0mKR|Vlei5(8-PnzYJcf#H3Q@x$kdh?Q23Uf4*%fJDZ7x~@W8c?Oeg$6pI z)_$idlbT->NpuZ7Z&q7yqJTZ#>RgE5*YZ9n1p_*Yr%|eOk`moY^{+k=G&z;rg9qXB z%SCl&4OAL+RU1{M-=2>@6bCm69XF?=82)K3Xkj^uOm762oW7gY?@qWa?j{5FP8(>Grt8N8qi-Ch=J+ZxZ zHhIUNev>NRp)a7_X}X?9*PWWFK{)uP$y|uyv2e6S6EPE>wuqDKOGbaZmLr%{MNicY z+HpQPPs*xceO@|wGGT~N3~d|?y>#lnOsn1wc1Ms42ArOs?z0QTFz^4t5cs`U)Om|V z{$}Mk%$U1ZD8cpjh|$(;e$$%EYH~PSoBL1=m*UYTzlY0kjip^9j4X_hvgi7G(Gs6d z>>_=9H#ulm|8oNO0stRf4cj)xZx_}@yiX7eXSApb<|-qOhN2w4<2`Ja_T g|K&r6kozDoat{K`Eol@X#p6K!fjA)81LL~=4P%!gr~m)} delta 2400 zcmZ8jc{J2-7ynus!;o#pGPX%%mt-}4u6jV&@{oBY0wrG$`CBx5Ozt;jS; z*)0PQ;3`)c9>s){cry@*)TU|F_S10yC0_{C+$r3g?vbwcA zH#DN2BxZZUJ1vKLf6A&<)u^_=(rq~yX(d>7Mn%JDSJ{XJp6Mhj6da%%@py@O8A#2%)lYf^V z=OCXp8SR={( z`;;aO?^{<13L`MT5GMHKDkA)+1%St_l^;HBFL$8?v+G7*D5?~A8BaC5{Rjx z395G(TYv*t>)Re?(le^2og@;o*fU8l30D>daeIdFS|(Cwozk&b{8%Fv-*|uaiz>F$ zz*GZAYtWLb_o7Y<7IdA;!wH&{DddoQ%Pbk4N6syg2&jh{sQDu`vrh@GBEylQL`GSv zAJuonclPM+h$WLrUl+yq0-Y@P)l0W*v-v$iZ@s+9_Pm8=yQ+*g`8-iS;(2bQPrKwq zq@69fm7zV|1~b_udZj9SWH2S0TrbJ*9G{}zf;CTaiVaK3EQW4L1wB-Z_G)u9i)F>% zO^8nx)mOhyN~(1dt@mnELA*U|eub?HIZE|I8TZ9OxXB##-qJ2!<~s_E*) zY_`0~=H*U&!w{Ii+Tm~<-tWyQ(%1xtglm78n;F~@Z#q|_{K^m3_Ds@sh_m88T3oT;&e&*>fM&`3N{nzk=dUA1kiA~N#%eu;m8Hl+r9fC{#7w2};=b{=lHsnf@_-5%=hGY4 zE0QJ`M9gRTjYODzJ`Dkr9?e{Jdtw<4LtO(*ZGB?8S7h$$)45cng!HSi<0!NBme911Uf#Uen) zT>ZPcHz!Ok;!Exqd$) zu-#Hqcg|bN;=!0&aXZ-}lI3bW9zTYjHq0S|lPR@_#=v~T;@qtT5||LD5-zNL>IMo^ zpA=>6L*f`~I+uB7D}(WGk;;!l6ste(Z|?jiI(VS`Y2Zit!}*?|71wIhXT^^su8B>+ z;3t`~_pm3JGm)=9qmz5AgC}IR2h%^Psyqh(z&~97p39;m08m;)c7ZtC7#(=jvP)`% zDfz}dp~|COIqsgi5;p@G!;jU|i{_X=ziH|8_hMH<-(YE<{z2y`l)f8?dG}m`U%*Jg z0Od*zwpa3|Y7I*hpX4jj@LH%N7Tw-Cqir@~&KlwN3|>6On}y^*o@vv~ma^1g`@;}@ zIZjaP0ADA2uYC1NuwXV(;;QL~##V$>mV;@K-*m@YQL1L}fm0n+^@B0l9;*4=9(p^U z1Gx-{V`0Ui=}Z{@MVEbx(`V!4nV63cDt(X@cSBANfmc7=c~chPn2{LjBxr}sMeefU zLZ=>NUtOGne7wA{lCEWkT=SS-bI{MkZ({jrN?G-+mG|pxurkH(cJ-`uKZdUhp1~Zg zQ~{MVwM$e(L&w#iVf8agUZq&PCBtp-K_F&Q*y2l&vVMpomAECPwn#r`azB3fOtPL- z$Zf=I#QO5PVhzKVYQOsR72XSLx6IFZwI1h>iiB=$uonMdF+#AFC;Y}?i2Hw7@NRDw zbi7#TA5xBpn{RIx%5Y;LAa>Dlo7I0vO(DV!wjUnCWx0$f9dP+=X9g|{hQa_K+<$Ly zNQ6H=SUdcpznwJ~Hyrry%ChKqp)|T?>^J@gf7kpS`_~ED2>@q_c>mzN+S~X4C;m+w zk-yRaAVC-a&Ifwg5d$w#;t&Xh?N0yxn&`ix8I-38)ONc=2wASvloiAt$XoI4i2ne_ CAU|IK