diff --git a/evangelism/episodes/episode_5.md b/evangelism/episodes/episode_5.md index 1b840ea..1ef0fee 100644 --- a/evangelism/episodes/episode_5.md +++ b/evangelism/episodes/episode_5.md @@ -1,6 +1,7 @@ # Operation Saylor - Episode 5/120 -Hi again and welcome to another episode of the Operation Saylor. This is update number 5, corresponding to September +Hi again and welcome to another episode of the Operation Saylor. This is update number 5, corresponding to November + 2022. If you are reading this for first time, you might want to check [Episode 1](https://stacker.news/items/47539), where my @@ -12,30 +13,77 @@ plan and details are explained. That will get you in context. - BTC stack: 1.1628 BTC - € stack: 6,535.20 € -- Current total value in €: XX,XXX.XX € +- Current total value in €: 25,140.00 € - € into BTC: 25,000 € -- Paid back to bank: 1,464.8 € +- Paid back to bank: 1,464.80 € - Outstanding debt: 42,479.53 € - Installments to go: 116 Charts -- Value of stack vs Outstanding debt with the bank +![img.png](../images/episode_5_stack_value_vs_debt.png) --- ## Log -Last week I visited a friend who is growing a couple of marijuana plants at his -home. We had an interesting discussion. +During last month I came across a couple of reads and a new company that brought me to think I'm not as crazy as I look +like. -- My point of view: legalize, much better option than alcohol. Reference book. -- The inmortal roots: decentralization as the biggest headache for state control - - Alcohol vs Marijuana production - - The simplicity of it - - The power of the alcohol and meds lobby -- I wish bitcoin to be even more resilient than marijuana is +The first read was a section of the Fiat Standard, where Saifedean discusses possible scenarios on how a transition +from a fiat world to a hyperbitcoinized one could look like. On it, he discusses that there are both forces that push +for a smooth transition as well as for an abrupt one. As part of his analysis, he presents the following: + A counter-point to consider to the preceding two sections' analysis is the + impact of the strategy of borrowing dollars to buy bitcoin. While many + people would be tempted to exit fiat debt entirely and shift to holding hard + bitcoin savings, the continued existence and wide availability of fiat debt + will offer a strong incentive to borrow fiat and use it to accumulate bitcoin. + One of the smartest and most far-seeing analysts of bitcoin, Pierre + Rochard, had identified this phenomenon as early as 2013, outlining how + bitcoin allows investors worldwide to carry out a speculative attack on all + national currencies similar to what George Soros and beneficiaries of low + interest rate lending have been doing to weak national currencies for + decades, with spectacular success. The speculative attack strategy is to + borrow the weak currency, and use the proceeds to buy the stronger + currency. As the borrowing of the weak currency causes an increase in its + supply, selling it to buy the strong currency causes a decrease in demand + for it, and results in the decline of its value next to the stronger currency. + This reduces the value of the loan the attacker owes, and increases the + value of the currency he holds, a highly lucrative combination. With bitcoin + a harder currency than all national currencies, it could serve as the perfect + launchpad for attacks against national currencies. It is a natural evolution + of the interaction between the two forms of money: hard bitcoin is + optimized for appreciating as it is held, while fiat is optimized for devaluing + as it is inflated and lent. The likelihood of speculative attacks casts doubt + on the monetary upgrade scenario discussed above. How long can fiat + survive if people can keep inflating its supply by borrowing it to buy harder + bitcoin? We have never seen a similar situation and it is hard to estimate how this will unfold. + +So apparently, I have started an speculative attack on the euro without even noticing. Shit happens. + +After reading that, I pulled the string to +the [original piece by Pierre Rochard](https://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/speculative-attack/) +, which I highly recommend you go and read now. It's concise and extremely insightful. + +The part that gets me most excited and simultaneously scared is the idea, proposed both by Saifedean and Pierre, that +the inevitability of the speculative attack makes Bitcoin adoption an accelerating phenomenon, and not a slowly fading +one as many people picture. Not a logarithmic curve, kind of like the chart of BTC in circulation by year, but rather +an S curve, where the fastest middle part might break a few necks. + +Lastly, I recently learned about this soon-to-launch company called [Faucet21](https://faucet21.com/). Their proposal? +Giving away personal loans like the one I got with the sole purpose of buying Bitcoin. As they put it, "Distributed, +Retail Level speculative attack". They even have a nice calculator you can use to simulate the expected return of this +strategy. You can go and play with my loan's numbers, for example. + +When I started planning and executing Operation Saylor, I knew I was not the only one having this idea. But now, I must +say I'm surprised at how old the idea is and how common it could eventually become. Because, from a game theory lens, +every person that jumps on the loan-for-BTC boat is hurting the fiat and strengthening Bitcoin. If enough people do +it... It reminds of the old quote from Satoshi: “It might make sense just to get some in case it catches on. If +enough people think the same way, that becomes a self fulfilling prophecy.” + +Well, I hope some of you don't think I'm that crazy after today's read, and perhaps some might even be thinking about +joining the club. I'll see you again next month. --- diff --git a/evangelism/images/episode_5_stack_value_vs_debt.png b/evangelism/images/episode_5_stack_value_vs_debt.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..4cbd59e Binary files /dev/null and b/evangelism/images/episode_5_stack_value_vs_debt.png differ diff --git a/register.xlsx b/register.xlsx index 05cdd98..e82e3f6 100644 Binary files a/register.xlsx and b/register.xlsx differ