.

README.md

@@ -11,9 +11,11 @@ of the contents:
 
 - `plan.md`: an overview of the general approach.
 - `register.xlsx`: a small spreadsheet to keep track of all transactions.
-- `simulation`: stuff to simulation the operation saylor itself according to
+- `simulation`: stuff to simulate the operation saylor itself according to
   historical data. Was mainly used to make the decision of pulling the trigger,
   but it would be interesting to compare in the future how things went against
   these simulations.
 - `xpub`: the xpub of the cold wallet.
+- `evangelism`: materials for my post series trackign the evolution of the
+  operation.
 

evangelism/episode_template.md

@@ -0,0 +1,31 @@
+# Operation Saylor Episode - X/120
+
+Hi again and welcome to another episode of the Operation Saylor. This is update
+number X, corresponding to MONTH, YEAR.
+
+If you are reading this for first time, you might want to
+check [Episode 1](ADD LINK) to get in context. 
+
+---
+
+## Stats
+
+- BTC Stack:
+- Current value in €
+- € in:
+- Paid back to bank:
+- Outstanding debt: 
+- Installments to go:
+
+Charts
+- BTC churn chart
+- Value of stack vs Outstanding debt with the bank
+
+---
+
+## Log
+
+<Explain something interesting here>
+
+
+## FAQ

evangelism/episodes/episode_1.md

@@ -0,0 +1,152 @@
+# Operation Saylor Episode - 1/120
+
+Hi there, welcome to Operation Saylor series.
+
+I have decided to take a loan to invest in Bitcoin. I will make a series of
+monthly updates here to track the evolution of this operation I have dubbed
+Saylor (in honor of [Michael Saylor](https://twitter.com/saylor), whose bold
+bet on Bitcoin and willigness to promote it where strong inspirations for this
+adventure).
+
+My goal with sharing this experience is to allow everyone to learn whatever can
+be learnt from my plan and
+execution. [Jamespunk great blog on his DCA path](https://er-bybitcoin.com/)
+was and is a great example of how a real life, first person narration can be
+very instructive. I hope this series can fulfill a similar role for this
+different investment approach.
+
+As this is the first episode, I'll provide some context so that you understand
+better this and future updates.
+
+## The Operation
+
+On July 2022, I took a loan with my usual bank. This is an uncollateralized
+loan with a fixed amortization schedule. The numbers:
+
+- Principal: 33.000€
+- 120 installments in 120 months (10 years)
+- APR: 5.99%, APY: 6.16%
+- Each installment will be of 366.20€
+- Total interesed paid will be 10,944.33€
+- Early amortization penalty of 1%
+- No opening costs
+
+As this loan has no collateral, there is no margin call or liquidation of any
+sort. The loan is completely orthogonal to whatever the evolution of bitcoin's
+price is.
+
+During the following six months, my plan is to swap 5.000€/month into bitcoin.
+I do this instead of simply lump-suming everyting to softly minimize the risk
+of picking a terrible entrypoint.
+
+After these six months, I will have a bitcoin stack of a certain amount and
+around 1.000€. From that point on, the plan is to:
+
+- Pay the installments each month.
+- Whenever the € stash goes very low, sell a bit of bitcoin back for € to pay
+  for the next installment. Goal here is to keep as much value in bitcoin as
+  possible and only go back to € tactically to cover the installments.
+- Repeat until 10 years have passed.
+
+As time passes, two scenarios can take place:
+
+- In the SHTF (shit hits the fan) scenario, I run out of bitcoin before the 10
+  years have passed and I am left with 0 stash and some amount outstanding with
+  the bank. I will be forced to keep paying the installments from my personal
+  pocket and Operation Saylor will have turned into a net negative for me. This
+  could happen both in case a black swan completely destroy bitcoin and its
+  value, or simply because bitcoin's € price doesn't go up fast enough to make
+  a net return.
+- In the Moon scenario, I manage to pay all the installments by taking small
+  bites of my bitcoin stack and I still have some amount of btc left in the
+  end. I will have succesfully earned value with my bet, and I am left with a
+  nice stack of some unknown value. This would happen in a scenario where
+  bitcoin behaves the way it tipically has for the past 10 years (or with a
+  slightly watered-down behaviour in terms of return and volatility) and I get
+  lucky with the early volatility.
+
+My hope is that Moon scenario will happen, but I am very well aware that SHTF
+scenario is a serious possibility.
+
+## Are you crazy stupid? Never borrow money for investing
+
+I am aware that there is a not negligible probability of losing several
+thousands of euros with this operation.
+
+But, after carefully judging, I think there is also a significant chance of
+getting a great upside. After playing with different simulations and
+hypothesis, I decided that the expected outcome looked net positive and decided
+to pull the trigger.
+
+I am also taking a calculated risk. Given my personal finances and life
+circunstances, the SHTF scenario would be a nasty blow but not a death
+sentence. Even if I get hacked on day 1 and lose all the money, I still expect
+to have a plate on the table every day and a roof over my head.
+
+## Why make it a series
+
+There are several motivations to doing this.
+
+- Explaning and documenting my plans helps me reflect on them deeply. It's a
+  bit like a peer review, with the only difference I am reviewing my own plans.
+- As discussed before, I find personal, real life stories of bitcoiners and
+  their actions fascinating. Macro environment analysis, papers, technical and
+  economical books, ... They are all great reads. But I think sometimes we also
+  need simple stories from regular people like us, with all the crisp of the
+  real life and down to earth practical issues. Bitcoin is, after all, a
+  grassroots, bottom-up phenomenon. It is the small actions of you, me and
+  everyone else which compose the emergent behaviour of the network.
+- I think that, on most forums and communities, there is a dogmatic rejection
+  to any kinf of idea related to borrowing money for investing. I am the first
+  to agree that, for most people, most of the time, it is a terrible idea that
+  should be avoided. But it is also my belief that under the right
+  circumstances, it is a valid strategy. And so I am slightly pissed off
+  because this automatic, parrot-like "NeVEr BorRoW tO INvEsT" comments hijack
+  any kind of honest debate around this. I hope that these series can be
+  counterbalance this and get people discussing in a calm and thoughtful manner
+  the possibility of doing something similar to what I am doing. If the angry
+  mobs hijack my posts anyway, at least I hope that whoever is curious about
+  the outcomes of taking this seemingly crazy and bonkers course of action can
+  ignore the deniers and simply read my story.
+
+## Why not simply DCA with a part of your salary isntead
+
+I am. This operation happens on top of my already regular DCA schedule. So you
+could say I am doubling down.
+
+As time passes, comparing Operation Saylor to having DCAd the amount equal to
+the paid installments will be an interesting analysis.
+
+## So should I do this as well
+
+The answer that most probably fits your circumstances is no.
+
+But, depending on your personal finances, risk aversion, other investments and
+what kind of loans and conditions you have access to, there is a chance that
+borrowing to invest might be a suitable option for you.
+
+I invite you to run your own analysis and put a lot of thinking into this
+decision. During the series, I will share my own train of thought and the
+numbers I ran before pulling the trigger.
+
+If you reached this far, thanks for reading. I'll be happy to discuss further
+in the comment section.
+
+---
+## Stats
+
+- BTC Stack:
+- Current value in €: 
+- € in:
+- Paid back to bank:
+- Outstanding debt:
+- Installments to go:
+
+Charts
+
+- BTC churn chart
+- Value of stack vs Outstanding debt with the bank
+
+## Log
+
+<Explain something interesting here>

plan.md

@@ -14,10 +14,10 @@ The idea of Operation Saylor is to:
 The loan I can get through my usual bank (Bankinter) comes with the following
 conditions:
 
-- Principal: 33.200€
+- Principal: 33.000€
 - 120 installments in 120 months
-- APR 5,99%, APY6,16%
+- APR 5,99%, APY 6,16%
-- Each installment would be of 368,42€
+- Each installment would be of 366,20€
 - Early amortization penalty of 1%
 - No opening costs
 
@@ -38,6 +38,10 @@ happen through four different bank accounts. That will spread the volume enough
 across different entities so that no single observe can realize the actual
 extent of the operation purchases.
 
+Since the loan amount is 33.000€ and the entry DCA period 6 months, the monthly
+buy should be around 5.000€ per month.
+
+
 ## BTC funds storage
 
 The BTC funds from the operation will be stored in two locations:
@@ -61,21 +65,49 @@ tremendous effort and a high chance of screwing up, with the awful consequences
 of the confusion that would come forth.
 
 To fix this, I will include the fiat amounts in my personal accounting in the
-following way: I will open sub-accounts for Operation Saylor in the four fiat 
+following way: I will open sub-accounts for Operation Saylor in the four fiat
 accounts I am planning on using. All the money related to the Operation will be
 recorded in these "virtual" accounts. This way, I will keep it separate from my
 personal balance and still be able to reconcile the total account balance with
-what will appear in my online banking systems. The origin of these funds will be
+what will appear in my online banking systems. The origin of these funds will
-a liability account, reflecting that this money doesn't really belong to "me",
+be a liability account, reflecting that this money doesn't really belong to "
-but rather to Operation Saylor.
+me", but rather to Operation Saylor.
 
 Regarding the BTC balance and all purchases and sales, I will run a separate
-spreadsheet to record those. That will enable a more flexible tracking and playing
+spreadsheet to record those. That will enable a more flexible tracking and
-around with data than what gnucash would allow me to, and the operations are 
+playing around with data than what gnucash would allow me to, and the
-going to be simple enough so that the serious ledger is not missed.
+operations are going to be simple enough so that the serious ledger is not
-
+missed.
 
 ## Expected results
 
+TODO: Summarize the outcomes of my little simulation engine.
+
 ## Evangelizing
 
+Operation Saylor is a financial movement that is typically touted as suicidal
+and irresponsible. Although it is indeed a very risky movement, I think that
+the online community has developed a certain degree of dogmatic rejection about
+leveraging to invest in BTC long term. People just mindlessly repeat "don't get
+a loan to invest" without providing any thoughts to the nuances around it or
+being open to discussing why is it a bad idea.
+
+I think that, with a loan like the one I am getting (uncollateralized, no
+margin call) Operation Saylor is not a stupid idea. It is indeed risky, and
+there is a chance that I will lose an important chunk of money. So I would like
+to spark up debates across the community to fight the rejection dogma, in the
+hope that some people might actually discover that this movement suits their
+own investment preferences.
+
+To do this, I will post a monthly update on stacker.news. On every update, I
+will provide a standard report on how things are going (BTC balance,
+outstanding debt, money invested vs current net worth) + an additional, brief
+reflection from my side. This could be about the reasoning that led me to run
+Operation Saylor, comparing this strategy to a DCA, discussing the fundamentals
+that make the operation sensible from a theoretical point of view, etc.
+
+I hope it would get the same kind of traction that the Early Retirement by
+Bitcoin blog would get. I feel there is something addictive about these monthly
+updates with real people and real numbers and seeing how well or how bad they
+are doing. It's as if you were sharing the greed and excitement with them.
+