operation_saylor/plan.md

# Operation Saylor plan

The idea of Operation Saylor is to:

- Borrow money from the bank through a personal loan.
- Quickly DCA the loan into BTC.
- Pay the loan back by slowly turning as-small-as-possible amounts of BTC into
  fiat as-late-as-possible.
- Hope that, by the time the loan is paid back in full, there is some BTC left.
  And hopefully, with a decent economical value.

## Loan conditions

The loan I can get through my usual bank (Bankinter) comes with the following
conditions:

- Principal: 33.000€
- 120 installments in 120 months
- APR 5,99%, APY 6,16%
- Each installment would be of 366,20€
- Early amortization penalty of 1%
- No opening costs

## Capital deployment and transacting

The whole operation will be undercover, tax-wise. All buys and sells will
happen P2P through bisq (or any better KYC-free service that appears in the
future) and won't be reported to any tax office.

To minimize the risk of entering in the very-worst-moment, the loan principal
will be used to purchase BTC in equal fiat amounts during six months. Not all
of it will be deployed: the equivalent to 3 months of installments will be left
in fiat. Any time this small fiat amount goes below two installments, a small
piece of BTC will be sold to have at least 3 installments in the account again.

To be quiet and secretive, the purchases during the first six months will
happen through four different bank accounts. That will spread the volume enough
across different entities so that no single observe can realize the actual
extent of the operation purchases.

Since the loan amount is 33.000€ and the entry DCA period 6 months, the monthly
buy should be around 5.000€ per month.


## BTC funds storage

The BTC funds from the operation will be stored in two locations:

- A small stash of (initially) 0.1 BTC will be kept in the bisq hot wallet for
  convenience when turning BTC to fiat to pay installments.
- All the rest of the BTC will be stored in a BTC cold wallet. The seed phrase
  will be generated with a Coldcard MK3. Paper copies will be left in the usual
  locations. A xpub will be used to set up a watch only wallet, and also kept
  in this repository in case that wallet fails.

## Accounting

I will keep the accounting from Operation Saylor as separate as possible from
my personal accounting. I want to track the performance of this Operation on
its own, without blurring it because it gets mixed with my personal finances.
Even so, there is an issue: the fiat I will be using during Operation Saylor
needs to live in my own personal fiat accounts. If I don't record that fiat in
my ledgers, I won't ever be able to properly reconcile my fiat balances without
tremendous effort and a high chance of screwing up, with the awful consequences
of the confusion that would come forth.

To fix this, I will include the fiat amounts in my personal accounting in the
following way: I will open sub-accounts for Operation Saylor in the four fiat
accounts I am planning on using. All the money related to the Operation will be
recorded in these "virtual" accounts. This way, I will keep it separate from my
personal balance and still be able to reconcile the total account balance with
what will appear in my online banking systems. The origin of these funds will
be a liability account, reflecting that this money doesn't really belong to "
me", but rather to Operation Saylor.

Regarding the BTC balance and all purchases and sales, I will run a separate
spreadsheet to record those. That will enable a more flexible tracking and
playing around with data than what gnucash would allow me to, and the
operations are going to be simple enough so that the serious ledger is not
missed.

## Expected results

TODO: Summarize the outcomes of my little simulation engine.

## Evangelizing

Operation Saylor is a financial movement that is typically touted as suicidal
and irresponsible. Although it is indeed a very risky movement, I think that
the online community has developed a certain degree of dogmatic rejection about
leveraging to invest in BTC long term. People just mindlessly repeat "don't get
a loan to invest" without providing any thoughts to the nuances around it or
being open to discussing why is it a bad idea.

I think that, with a loan like the one I am getting (uncollateralized, no
margin call) Operation Saylor is not a stupid idea. It is indeed risky, and
there is a chance that I will lose an important chunk of money. So I would like
to spark up debates across the community to fight the rejection dogma, in the
hope that some people might actually discover that this movement suits their
own investment preferences.

To do this, I will post a monthly update on stacker.news. On every update, I
will provide a standard report on how things are going (BTC balance,
outstanding debt, money invested vs current net worth) + an additional, brief
reflection from my side. This could be about the reasoning that led me to run
Operation Saylor, comparing this strategy to a DCA, discussing the fundamentals
that make the operation sensible from a theoretical point of view, etc.

I hope it would get the same kind of traction that the Early Retirement by
Bitcoin blog would get. I feel there is something addictive about these monthly
updates with real people and real numbers and seeing how well or how bad they
are doing. It's as if you were sharing the greed and excitement with them.