# Plans for 2024

## Situation at the start of the year

At the start of the year, my networth amounts to ~200K€. 

My assets are valued at 244K. My biggest asset class is Bitcoin, which stands at 160K. My regular investments stand at 51K. The missing 33K are spread across cash and other less liquid assets.

My liabilities stand at 39K, with almost all of it being to Bankinter for my two loans.


## Budget for the year

During this year, I expect to receive about 4K per month for my normal Superhog salary, which translates to 48K during the year.

In terms of expenses, I'm allocating 2K per month, totaling 24K for the year.

Thus, I expect my earnings to be of 24K.

## Asset allocation and rebalancing

As usual, my goal is for my investment assets to be split 50% in Bitcoin and 50% in traditional investments, while holding about half a year of expenses in cash.

Currently, I stand severely imbalanced. My Bitcoin holdings amount to 73% of my investment portfolio, leaving my tradfi investments at 27%. Given the expectations for a bitcoin bullrun soon, this imbalance should grow bigger if left unattended. To solve this, I will take the following actions during the year:
- All expenses that can be covered with Bitcoin will be. This includes converting Bitcoin to cash and using cash as much as possible.
- All the surplus from my cash accounts will be used to increase positions in the tradfi assets.
- 2K€ worth of Bitcoin will be sold each month and sneaked into my bankinter account from other accounts to increase positions in the tradfi assets.
I expect this actions to lead to a monthly decrease of 3K€/month of my Bitcoin position and an increase of my tradfi position of 5K€/month. As for the final composition of the investment portfolio, if prices would remain unchanged, it would be back to 50/50. I find this outcome unlikely, given the part of the bitcoin halving cycle we are in. We'll see.

The average annual return I would expect for the current composition is around 40%. If I couple that with my expected earnings of 24K, I expect to reach the end of 2024 with a networth of around 300K€.


## Leverage

I am currently sitting on an liabilities to assets (LA) ratio of 16%, and a liabilities to equity (DE) ratio of 19%. The yearly payments to income ratio (PI) is around 9%. I haven't put much thought into how high could I go. As of today, my cashflow would comfortably allow me to serve debt that would take me to LA 40%, DE 50% and PI 25%. In spite of this, I'm hesitant on taking on more debt given that I would point it towards tradfi investments, and the spread between the expected returns of my tradfi investments and the interest rates I'm being offered (5-9%) is not enough to justify the risks. 

I think that, at this point, it makes more sense to keep on strengthening my tradfi investments and wait for the next Bitcoin bear market to reach and severely imbalance my portfolio towards tradfi assets. Then, I can use my would-be proportionally-larger tradfi assets as collateral to double down on leverage to buy more Bitcoin again, bringing my overal portfolio back towards 50/50.